March 23, 2026
El Nino likely in 2026; Hotter summer and weak monsoon for India
This will show up in your food prices and water cuts next summer
What's happening?
- Scientists are predicting a 62% chance of El Nino developing by August 2026.
- El Nino is a cyclical global weather condition that results in a weaker monsoon and more intense summer heat in India.
Why should you care?
- El Nino weakens India's southwest monsoon — the single biggest source of water for the country's farms, reservoirs, and groundwater. This coming right after an unusually dry winter across northern India, when groundwater hasn't recharged and glacial mass is thin, could result in a serious water crunch by late 2026.
- A weak monsoon means less water for kharif crops like rice, soybean, and pulses, and that means higher food prices.
- It also bring more intense and longer heat waves. India is already seeing temperatures cross 40°C in March. If El Nino strengthens through summer, the heat could be brutal.