April 15, 2026
India's 2026 Monsoon Could Be Below Normal — For the First Time in 11 Years
The IMD is forecasting weaker-than-usual rains this June–September, driven by returning El Niño conditions. Bad monsoon affects agriculture, food prices and water levels in rivers and reservoirs.
Image by Vivek Doshi on Unsplash
What's happening?
India’s Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its April forecast projecting the 2026 monsoon will be “below normal” — meaning rainfall below 90% of the long-period average. It would be the first such forecast since 2015.
The driver is El Niño: warm Pacific Ocean conditions that typically suppress rainfall over South Asia. IMD expects El Niño to develop after June, right as the monsoon peaks.
Historically, 6 out of 10 El Niño years have brought below-average rainfall to India. The 2015 El Niño year saw widespread drought across Maharashtra, Telangana, and parts of Karnataka.
Why should you care?
This hits food prices first. Kharif crops — rice, pulses, oilseeds, sugarcane — are planted in June and need consistent monsoon rain. A weak monsoon raises the risk of lower yields, which pushes up food inflation.
It’s not just farming. Groundwater recharge, drinking water reservoirs, and hydropower all depend on a healthy monsoon. Cities like Chennai and Bengaluru have already faced acute water crises in recent years — a below-normal monsoon season compounds that vulnerability.
The forecast could still change. IMD will issue an updated forecast in May once El Niño patterns become clearer.